After 49 consecutive trimesters of price increases since 2013, the Spanish housing market is showing signs of a change in cycle. The latest statistics released in September indicate a slight moderation in price growth, with a 12.2% year-over-year increase in the second quarter of 2026, down from 12.7% in the previous quarter.
The data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) also shows that the demand for housing remains strong, driven by an increase in the number of households and population growth. However, the supply of new housing is limited, with only 100,000 units being built per year, which has led to a shortage of available homes and upward pressure on prices.
Housing Market Trends
The lack of supply, particularly of new housing, has led to a rise in prices for second-hand homes, which have surpassed the price growth of new homes. The creation of new households has resulted in a deficit of around 750,000 units, according to the Bank of Spain, which has contributed to the upward pressure on prices.
The market has also been characterized by favorable financing conditions, with low interest rates and easy access to mortgages, which has fueled demand and driven up prices. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) has indicated that it will tighten monetary policy, which could lead to higher interest rates and reduced access to credit.
María Matos, director of Studies at Fotocasa, notes that the recent increase in inflation and the expected tightening of monetary policy could mark a turning point in the market, leading to a more segmented market with slower price growth. Matos’ statement suggests that the market is becoming more complex.
Impact on Buyers
The rise in prices and the lack of supply have made it increasingly difficult for buyers to access the market, particularly in cities like Madrid and Barcelona, where prices have reached extremely high levels. In the province of Madrid, the effort required to purchase a home is above 40% of the renta disponible del hogar medio, superior al nivel de 35% que es el considerado como razonable. The capital, however, se sitúa en un nivel de esfuerzo crítico del 56%. In the province of Barcelona, the effort required to purchase a home is around 36%, while the capital se sitúa en un nivel de esfuerzo crítico del 53%.
As a result, buyers are becoming more selective, reducing their budgets, and looking for smaller homes in more affordable areas. Some may even delay their purchase decision until market conditions improve.
Expert Opinion
Diego Bestard, consejero delegado y fundador de Urbanitae, believes that the market is not experiencing a problem of excess supply, but rather a shortage of available homes. He attributes the high prices to the cost of land, construction costs, administrative delays, and the insufficient generation of new supply.
Bestard argues that the market is not facing a housing crisis, but rather a crisis of access to housing, with many households unable to afford the current prices. The problems in accelerating the construction of new homes will continue to affect the market, with promoters and constructors citing a lack of finalist land, excessive bureaucracy, and high costs due to the current geopolitical situation, which has led to increased material costs.
Diego Bestard notes that the future of the market is expected to be characterized by a continued shortage of supply and strong demand, with prices remaining high. The lack of new housing and the limited availability of affordable homes will continue to pose challenges for buyers, making it essential to address the underlying issues driving the market.
The market’s future is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the demand for housing will continue to grow. The number of households is increasing, and the population is growing, which will lead to a continued need for new homes.
María Matos and Diego Bestard agree that the market is complex and that there are many factors at play. They believe that it is essential to understand these factors to make informed decisions about the market’s future.
The Spanish housing market is expected to continue to evolve in the coming years. The government and other stakeholders must work together to address the underlying issues driving the market and to find solutions to the problems facing buyers.
The situation is challenging, but it is not impossible to resolve. With the right policies and strategies in place, it is possible to create a more balanced market that meets the needs of both buyers and sellers.
It is a complex issue, and there are no easy answers. However, by working together and understanding the market’s complexities, it is possible to find solutions that will benefit everyone involved.
The future of the Spanish housing market is uncertain, but with the right approach, it is possible to create a more stable and balanced market. The key is to address the underlying issues driving the market and to find solutions that will benefit both buyers and sellers.